COVID-19: Income Shocks and Policy Responses
"Earnings Business Cycles: The Covid Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response."
with Jeff Larrimore and Jacob Mortenson. Working paper, 2022.(Slides, Excel file, Oct. 2022 version, SSRN version) Media: Atlantic, Yglesias, Noah Smith
"Stimulus Checks: True-Up and Safe Harbor Costs." National Tax Journal, Forthcoming. (Slides)
"Unemployment Insurance in Survey and Administrative Data."
with Jeff Larrimore and Jacob Mortenson. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2022, 42(2), 571-579. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22463 (Excel file, imputation do file)
"Income Declines During Covid-19." with Jeff Larrimore and Jacob Mortenson.
AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2022, 112, 340-344. (Excel file)
"Earnings Shocks and Stabilization During Covid-19."
with Jeff Larrimore and Jacob Mortenson. Journal of Public Economics 206, 104597.
(twitter summary, PrePrint, and Federal Reserve versions) Media: Yahoo
"Income Inequality in the United States: Using Tax Data to Measure Long-term Trends."
with Gerald Auten. Working paper, 2023.
Online data (excel)
Slides, Presentation Video, and summary
Computer code (txt)
Earlier Versions: 2022, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016
Media: Economist, Vox, PBS, Hill, WSJa, WSJb, Politico Tax
"Strengths and Limitations of Tax Data for Distributional Estimates." with Jeff Larrimore and Jacob Mortenson. National Academy of Sciences Meeting, July 12, 2022.
"Comment: Tax Evasion at the Top of the Income Distribution: Theory and Evidence."
with Gerald Auten, Working paper, 2021. (Slides, comment on Guyton et al. 2021)
"Reply: Trends in US Income and Wealth Inequality: Revising After the Revisionists."
Working paper, 2020. (responds to comments by Saez and Zucman 2020)
"Household Incomes in Tax Data: Using Addresses to Move from Tax Unit to Household Income Distributions." with Jeff Larrimore and Jacob Mortenson. Journal of Human Resources, 2021, 56(2), 600-631. (online appendix, Excel, working paper, Data files: readme and main)
"Top Income Shares and the Difficulties of Using Tax Data."
with Gerald Auten. In Furchtgott-Roth, Diana (ed.), United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality, 125-152. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2020. (Excel file)
"Measuring Income Inequality: Survey vs. Tax Data & Fiscal vs. National Income." Brookings Institution Workshop on Income Inequality, February 19, 2020.
"Top 1% Income Shares: Comparing Estimates Using Tax Data."
with Gerald Auten. AEA Papers & Proceedings, 2019, 109, 307-311. (online appendix responding to Piketty, Saez, & Zucman, Excel file, SAS code, Slides, AEA page)
"Comment: Inequality and Philanthropy: High-Income Giving in the United States 1917-2012." working paper, 2018. (online data: Excel, STATA based on Duquette 2018: zip file)
Tax Progressivity and Redistribution
"U.S. Tax Progressivity and Redistribution."
National Tax Journal, 2020, 73(4), 1005-1024. (Online Appendix, Excel file, Slides)
"Middle-Class Redistribution: Tax and Transfer Policy for Most Americans"
with Adam Looney and Jeff Larrimore. In Melissa S. Kearney and Amy Ganz (eds.), Securing Our Economic Future. Washington, DC: Aspen Institute. 2020, 50-81. (Excel file)
"U.S. Taxes are Progressive: Comment on 'Progressive Wealth Taxation'."
Working Paper, 2019. (Online data: Excel)
Media: Bloomberg, Vox, MRa, MRb, WaPo, Signal, Yahoo, WSJa, WSJb, Quartz
"Who Pays No Tax? The Declining Fraction Paying Income Taxes and Increasing Tax Progressivity." Contemporary Economic Policy, 2019, 37(3), 413-426. (Online data: Excel)
"Income Mobility and Inequality: Adult-Level Measures from the U.S. Tax Data since 1979." Review of Income and Wealth, 2022, 68(4), 906-921. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12501. (online appendix and Excel file, earlier title: Income Mobility and Inequality in the United States: Evidence from Tax Data since 1979.)
"Presence and Persistence of Poverty in U.S. Tax Data."
with Jeff Larrimore and Jacob Mortenson. In Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Janet C. Gornick, Barry Johnson, and Arthur Kennickell (eds.), Measuring Distribution and Mobility of Income and Wealth. Cambridge, MA: NBER. 2022, 383-410. (Excel data, Slides, NBER version)
"Progressive Growth: Comparing Cross-Sectional and Panel Approaches."
working paper, 2019. (Online data: Excel)
"Income and Earnings Mobility in U.S. Tax Data."
with Jeff Larrimore and Jacob Mortenson, in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Eds.) Economic Mobility: Research & Ideas on Strengthening Families, Communities & the Economy, 2016, 481-516. (working paper)
"Income Variability: Effects on U.S. Income Inequality and Tax Progressivity."
Rice University, PhD Dissertation, 2012.
"Income Volatility and Mobility: U.S. Income Tax Data, 1999-2007."
with Victoria Bryant and John Diamond. Proceedings of the 102nd Annual Conference of the National Tax Association, 2009.
Tax Policy: EITC, Deductions, and Behavioral Responses
"The Mortgage Interest Deduction: Causes of Fluctuations in a Procyclical Tax Expenditure." Public Finance Review, 2019, 47(5), 807-827. (Online data: Excel)
"Whose Child Is This? Shifting of Dependents Among EITC Claimants Within the Same Household." with Jeff Larrimore and Jacob Mortenson, National Tax Journal, 2017, 70(4), 737-758. (working paper)
"Reactions of High-Income Taxpayers to Major Tax Reforms."
with Gerald Auten and Susan Nelson, National Tax Journal, 2016, 69(4), 935-964.
Health Insurance & Pensions
"How Much Does Health Insurance Cost? Comparison of Premiums in Administrative and Survey Data." with Jeff Larrimore. Economics Letters, 2019, 174: 132-135.
(Excel data, working paper)
"State Pension Contributions and Fiscal Stress."
Journal of Pension Finance and Economics, 2017, 16(1), 65-80.
Joint Committee on Taxation. "The Income and Payroll Tax Offset to Changes in Payroll Tax Revenues." (JCX-89-16), November 18, 2016.